Parameter estimates in large-scale complex engineered systems (LaCES) affect system evolution, yet can be difficult and expensive to test. Systems engineering uses analytical methods to reduce uncertainty, but a growing body of work from other disciplines indicates that cognitive heuristics also affect decision-making. Results from interviews with expert aerospace practitioners suggest that engineers bias estimation strategies. Practitioners reaffirmed known system features and posited that engineers may bias estimation methods as a negotiation and resource conservation strategy. Specifically, participants reported that some systems engineers “game the system” by biasing requirements to counteract subsystem estimation biases. An agent-based model (ABM) simulation which recreates these characteristics is presented. Model results suggest that system-level estimate accuracy and uncertainty depend on subsystem behavior and are not significantly affected by systems engineers' “gaming” strategy.
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December 2018
Research-Article
Gaming the System: An Agent-Based Model of Estimation Strategies and their Effects on System Performance
John Meluso,
John Meluso
Global Design Laboratory,
Design Science Program,
University of Michigan,
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
e-mail: jmeluso@umich.edu
Design Science Program,
University of Michigan,
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
e-mail: jmeluso@umich.edu
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Jesse Austin-Breneman
Jesse Austin-Breneman
Global Design Laboratory,
Department of Mechanical Engineering,
University of Michigan,
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
e-mail: jausbren@umich.edu
Department of Mechanical Engineering,
University of Michigan,
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
e-mail: jausbren@umich.edu
Search for other works by this author on:
John Meluso
Global Design Laboratory,
Design Science Program,
University of Michigan,
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
e-mail: jmeluso@umich.edu
Design Science Program,
University of Michigan,
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
e-mail: jmeluso@umich.edu
Jesse Austin-Breneman
Global Design Laboratory,
Department of Mechanical Engineering,
University of Michigan,
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
e-mail: jausbren@umich.edu
Department of Mechanical Engineering,
University of Michigan,
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
e-mail: jausbren@umich.edu
1Corresponding author.
Contributed by the Design Theory and Methodology Committee of ASME for publication in the JOURNAL OF MECHANICAL DESIGN. Manuscript received August 9, 2017; final manuscript received January 30, 2018; published online September 18, 2018. Assoc. Editor: Katja Holtta-Otto.
J. Mech. Des. Dec 2018, 140(12): 121101 (9 pages)
Published Online: September 18, 2018
Article history
Received:
August 9, 2017
Revised:
January 30, 2018
Citation
Meluso, J., and Austin-Breneman, J. (September 18, 2018). "Gaming the System: An Agent-Based Model of Estimation Strategies and their Effects on System Performance." ASME. J. Mech. Des. December 2018; 140(12): 121101. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4039494
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